About the MRR Growth Projection Calculator
This MRR growth projection calculator forecasts your monthly recurring revenue month by month. Start from today’s MRR, enter how much new MRR you add from new customers each month and how fast that is growing, then add expansion (upgrades and seat growth) and churn (cancellations and downgrades) as a percentage of existing MRR. It returns MRR and ARR at the end of the forecast, the compound monthly growth rate (CMGR), the totals of new, expansion and churned MRR, and how long it takes to reach a target MRR.
It is built for SaaS founders building a fundraising plan, operators setting sales targets and investors sanity-checking a growth story. Because churn and expansion scale with the size of the base while new MRR depends on your go-to-market engine, the projection shows how growth naturally slows as churn starts to offset new sales — and how much net revenue retention matters.
The model applies expansion and churn to the MRR at the start of each month, adds that month’s new MRR, and grows new MRR at a constant monthly rate. Real businesses see seasonality and step changes, so treat the output as a scenario rather than a forecast you can bank.
With the default inputs, the mrr at end of projection is $124,143.59. Change any value above to recalculate instantly.
How to use the mrr growth projection calculator
- 1Enter your current MRR and the new MRR you expect to add next month.
- 2Set how fast new MRR grows each month as your sales engine scales.
- 3Enter monthly expansion and churn as percentages of MRR.
- 4Choose the projection length and an optional target MRR.
- 5Review ending MRR, ARR, CMGR and the month you hit the target.
Formula and method
Each month, expansion and churn are applied to the MRR the month started with, so they scale with the size of the customer base, while new MRR comes from acquisition and grows at its own monthly rate g. Ending MRR becomes the next month’s starting MRR. With constant new MRR and churn above expansion, MRR approaches a ceiling of New ÷ (c − e), which is why reducing churn matters more as you grow.
The compound monthly growth rate is the constant monthly rate that would take MRR from its starting to its ending value over the projection — the n-th root of the growth multiple, minus one. Raising (1 + CMGR) to the 12th power gives the equivalent annual growth rate. ARR is simply MRR × 12 at the end of the projection.
- g
- Monthly growth rate of new MRR
- e
- Monthly expansion as a share of MRR
- c
- Monthly churn and contraction as a share of MRR
- n
- Number of months projected
Worked examples
$20k MRR, $3k new MRR growing 5%, 1% expansion, 3% churn, 24 months
New MRR grows from $3,000 to about $9,000 a month while 2% net churn erodes the growing base. After 24 months MRR reaches about $124,144 (ARR ≈ $1.49M), a 7.90% CMGR, crossing $100k in month 21.
Flat new sales hit a churn ceiling
With a constant $3,000 of new MRR and 2% net churn, MRR climbs toward a ceiling of $3,000 ÷ 2% = $150,000, crossing $100k in month 48 and reaching only about $111,318 after five years.
Negative net churn
With no new customers, 3% expansion against 1% churn grows the base 2% a month: $50,000 × 1.02¹² ≈ $63,412, a 26.8% annual growth rate purely from existing customers.
Frequently asked questions
What is CMGR?+
Compound monthly growth rate is the steady monthly growth rate that would take a metric from its starting value to its ending value over a period: (end ÷ start)^(1 ÷ months) − 1. It smooths out lumpy months and is a common way to report early-stage SaaS growth.
What is a good MRR growth rate?+
It depends heavily on stage. Very early startups often target 15–20% month-over-month, while companies with a few million in ARR more commonly grow a few percent a month. Compare CMGR with companies at a similar ARR rather than a single benchmark.
Why does MRR growth slow down over time?+
Churn is a percentage of a growing base, so the dollars lost each month rise as MRR grows. Unless new MRR keeps growing at least as fast, churn eventually catches up and MRR levels off at new MRR ÷ net churn rate.
How do I convert MRR to ARR?+
Multiply MRR by 12. ARR is a run-rate measure of recurring subscription revenue only; it should exclude one-off fees, services and non-recurring usage.
What is the difference between gross and net churn here?+
The churn input should include cancellations and downgrades (gross revenue churn), while expansion is entered separately. Churn minus expansion is net revenue churn; when it is negative, existing customers grow revenue on their own.